Significant developments are taking place in the Middle East, where intense but covert global competition between the US and China continues. The long
Significant
developments are taking place in the Middle East, where intense but covert
global competition between the US and China continues. The long-awaited visit
by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia is of great importance to
regional powers trying to maintain a balance and hedging in the face of fierce
competition.
While Chinese
companies signed investment agreements with Saudi Arabia in various fields
(34), these agreements cover a wide range of sectors, including green energy,
information technology, cloud services, transportation, logistics, medical
industries, housing and construction factories.
The Saudi
investment minister spoke of agreements worth around $50 billion. Trade between
China and Saudi Arabia exceeded $80 billion in 2021, and Chinese companies have
invested more than $36 billion in Saudi Arabia since 2005. With a total
investment of $106 billion, Saudis are at the top of China's list of regional
assets.
On the other
hand, at the beginning of 2022, Aramco decided to build a $10 billion refinery
and petrochemical complex in northeastern China. The project, expected to
become operational in 2024, will have a refinery capacity of 300,000 barrels
per day. In addition, Sinopec, a Chinese company, also owns 37.5% of the Yanbu
refinery, with a daily capacity of 400,000 barrels, on the Red Sea coast.
While Saudi
media interpreted the visit as raising Arab-China relations to "a new level," Chinese media
also emphasized that the visit was "epoch
making." This shows that Saudi Arabia is divorcing its ties with the
US, which has long served as the guarantor of regional security.
The main
concern for the Saudis is to avoid becoming a battleground in the competition
between the US and China. Therefore, the Saudis are adopting diversified
diplomacy and developing a classic risk-avoidance (hedging) approach that aims to balance between rival great powers.
This strategy could gain weight in the Middle East.
The Saudis
are looking for ways to engage with China cautiously in this turbulent
multipolar period. Such engagement, though, is unlikely to be welcomed by the
US, which plays a "determining"
role in the region's security. Therefore, it is safe to say that the Saudis
have embarked on a "dangerous but
opportunity-rich" path.
It is
reasonable to recollect US Vice President Joe Biden's critical statements
during his July visit to Riyadh: "We
will not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia, or Iran.
The United States is not going anywhere.”
Despite such
bold statements, the US has experienced a decline in global and, therefore,
regional influence. On the other hand, China, which acts with "a weak hegemonic motive"
shows great interest in the Middle East to secure its energy needs and use the
geopolitical position of trade routes.
Geopolitical
stability and security are vital for China. The US's regional security
architecture currently being built also serves China's interests. Therefore,
China is a strategic actor that
invests in the existing status quo but also keeps an eye on opportunities.
A comprehensive strategic partnership agreement was signed during Chinese President Xi Jinping's much-discussed visit to Saudi Arabia. A comprehensive strategic partnership is an essential level in China's foreign policy, which follows the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. However, this is not an alliance.
In the
Middle East, China is creating an unique position for itself. It has the
ability to develop $400 billion deals with Iran, a UAV factory with Saudi
Arabia, and port partnerships with Israel. Due to its flexibility, China has a
lot of room for manoeuvre, which puts its Middle East strategy in a "grey zone."
Therefore,
the proposal to make oil payments in yuan and the summits held during the visit
indicates both a strategic preparation for China's Middle East policy and the
signs of a foreign policy transformation in Saudi Arabia.
In an
article published in Saudi Arabia's Al Riyad newspaper, entitled "Carrying Forward Our Millennia-old
Friendship and Jointly Creating a Better Future" Chinese President Xi
Jinping emphasized that the two countries are working together for the
prosperity of the world within the framework of "Vision 2030" and the
Belt and Road Initiative.
It is
possible to argue that China placed a specific emphasis on the idea of "comprehensive strategic
cooperation." No political or security-related remarks were made. Xi
places a lot of emphasis on the rule of not meddling in others' domestic
affairs. Coordination of strategies and cooperation in the economy and energy
are the key focal topics.
Meanwhile,
the Saudi Press Agency also published a joint statement of about 4,000 words.
In this statement, both sides reaffirmed the principle of non-interference in
internal affairs, and Saudi Arabia reiterated its commitment to the "one-China" principle. Energy
issues, particularly the peaceful use of nuclear energy and the development of
artificial energy, were highlighted.
At the same
time, it was announced at the conference that a 'harmonization plan' was signed
between Saudi Arabia's 2030 Vision and China's Belt and Road Initiative.
Regarding political issues, the two sides confirmed their full support for
efforts to find a political solution to the Yemen crisis.
It received
little notice, but there was an agreement to deepen collaboration to safeguard
the peaceful character of Iran's nuclear programme, which might place China in
a balancing role between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The two
sides also discussed developments in the Palestine issue and emphasized the
need to focus efforts on achieving a comprehensive and fair solution to the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The need to focus efforts on achieving a
political solution in Syria that preserves the country's territorial integrity,
restores security and creates the necessary conditions for the voluntary return
of refugees was also emphasized.
Chinese
President Xi Jinping made similar statements at the China-Arab States Summit
and the China-Gulf Cooperation Council Summit. In summary, the following points
stand out:
- ·
Cooperation in the energy sector
- ·
Harmonization with the Belt and Road
- ·
Payments in yuan
- ·
Efforts on Iran and the nuclear
issue
- ·
Harmony on the Palestine issue
- ·
Confirmation of the One China
principle
In a report
titled "China-Arab Cooperation in
the New Era", published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on
December 3, China specifically stated that it would strengthen its monetary
cooperation with the central banks of Arab countries and discuss expanding
cross-border local currency settlement and exchange.
Still,
progress is not expected in this regard at this stage. However, the
participation of Saudi banks in China's international payment system, CIPS, is
on the agenda.
Meanwhile,
let's remember that about 80% of global oil sales are traded in dollars, and
Saudi Arabia has committed to trading oil only in dollars since 1974, in an
agreement with the Nixon government for security guarantees for the country.
The US
government is dissatisfied with Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit and
China's efforts to increase its influence in the Middle East. When US National
Security Council spokesman John Kirby says, "We are mindful of the influence that China is trying to grow
around the world. The Middle East is certainly one of those regions where they
want to deepen their level of influence," he seems to be referring
precisely to this.
From the US
perspective, the rapprochement between China and Saudi Arabia is probably very
confusing, as it defines the global power struggle in the new era as a
competition between democracies and autocracies. Mike Pompeo, former US
Secretary of State, unhappy with the Biden administration's policies towards
the region, says that Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia is a
"result of bad American
policy."
The Biden
administration, which has been constantly confused about whether to withdraw
from the region and has been heavily criticized for the events that occurred
when it withdrew from Afghanistan, is having coordination problems in forming
and managing strategy.
There are
approximately 65,000 US soldiers on permanent bases in the region. The US,
which donates $10 billion to the Middle East every year, is struggling with the
problem of how it can further settle in the region without incurring additional
costs in global competition due to developments such as the Ukraine issue and
the situation with Iran.
For China,
the US that is struggling with Ukraine, Iran and the Middle East, will always
be a preferred option because it will allow the global competition to spread
over a wider area, while the resolution of sensitive issues such as Taiwan will
be postponed to a later date and the status quo will continue.
Amid all
this commotion, Saudi Arabia is trying to optimize its interests and eliminate
the risks that may arise from global competition. Saudi Arabia's Foreign
Minister's statement, "Collaboration
with China does not mean non-collaboration with the US. We do not believe in
polarization or choosing between one or the other," expresses such a
concern.
By adopting
such an approach, Saudi Arabia is calculating how to minimize the costs of
great power competition. One of the most prominent trends in the new era is the
increase in efforts by countries to avoid a strong alliance and detachment,
which gives China's strategic partnership model a serious attractiveness. This
way, mid-sized states try to hedging from the pressure to choose sides by
showing multifaceted conformity.
The focus of
the China-Saudi Arabia relationship is primarily based on energy. Saudi Arabia
is the country that exports the most oil to China and China is very sensitive
to energy security. According to official figures from China, 72% of oil
consumption and 44% of natural gas demand are obtained from abroad.
China is
trying to take advantage of the tensions between Riyadh and Washington in
recent times in its deepening competition with the US. However, despite these
efforts, it is not likely that the US
engagement in the region, which continues with its military presence, will
suddenly disappear.
Dr.Hüseyin Korkmaz. The author is a researcher focusing on China and geopolitics in the Asia, primarily related to the US-China relations.
YORUMLAR