When the Deal-Maker Hit the Wall: Echoes of a Trade War

The recent round of negotiations between the United States and China in Geneva, Switzerland, has laid bare the vulnerabilities of the global...

The recent round of negotiations between the United States and China in Geneva, Switzerland, has laid bare the vulnerabilities of the global economy. Despite repeated warnings from experts about an impending recession and the strain on supply chains, former President Trump remained convinced that he could corner China through the art of deal-making.

But he was wrong.

The outcome of the Geneva talks is better described as a framework for dialogue than a full-fledged trade agreement.

Rather than a classic “deal,” this can be seen as a “ceasefire,” a “temporary détente,” or a provisional arrangement.

Although this short-term trade truce, embellished with expressions of “goodwill” by both sides, appears to be nothing more than a “breathing space,” the joint statement points to some concrete gains.

The US's decision to reduce the 145% tariff on Chinese imports to 30% is not only an economic revision but also a political admission. China's decision to reduce the relevant tax rate to 10% shows that its diplomatic struggle, which it had pursued tit-for-tat, can be flexible.

This series of concessions demonstrates that the threatening and coercive rhetoric employed during the most intense days of the trade war has been dampened by China's resilient patience.

The Trump administration’s policy of “maximum pressure” was effectively met with China’s strategy of “maximum patience”—a measured, calm response that went beyond traditional diplomatic playbooks and amounted to a calculated counter-challenge.

Whether this tenuous ceasefire will lead to lasting normalization or merely foreshadow the next phase of confrontation remains unclear. For now, both countries appear to be in a period of strategic recalibration—reviewing economic inventories, assessing damage, and redefining their trade priorities.

Despite the optimistic tone of the post-Geneva statements, filled with adjectives like “sincere” and “constructive,” a deeper reading reveals a mutual, cautious waiting game between two global giants.

China’s stance is clear: it will not capitulate to the US’s aggressive trade tactics—even as it works to minimize economic fallout.

Trump's boast that “trade wars are good and easy to win” seems to have been drowned out by its own echo today.

China's resilient structure and determination seem to have forced the US to revise its strategy. For now, the issue is no longer just a matter of import-export balance, but also one of political prestige, economic hegemony, and the redrawing of the global power profile.

At this point, the agreement reached between the parties indicates that, at least in the short term, the psychological upper hand in the trade war has been secured by Beijing.

China has always said that “there will be no winner in the trade war,” but Trump and the US appear to have lost the first round.

Describing the agreement reached in Geneva as a “trade agreement” could lead us into the trap of overinterpretation.

This is because there is neither a detailed protocol containing binding provisions nor a long-term perspective for economic normalization.

The parties have only agreed to temporary reductions in mutual customs duties and to establish a comprehensive negotiation schedule.

In its current form, this agreement should be seen as a strategic pause or a trade ceasefire rather than an “agreement.”

However, despite this overall picture, it is possible to say that China, which has shown maximum patience throughout the process, has the upper hand in this tough trade war.

China appears to be the winner, at least for now.