The New Cold War and the Decay of the Global Order

  The New Cold War era is steadily deepening.The strategic rivalry between the United States and China has evolved from a bilateral struggle...

 

The New Cold War era is steadily deepening.The strategic rivalry between the United States and China has evolved from a bilateral struggle between two superpowers into a multi-layered crisis that is reshaping the global order. The Biden administration has largely adopted the anti-China policies initiated during Trump’s first term, continuing this strategy with a more diplomatic yet equally assertive approach.

Today, rising tensions in the international arena reveal that this competition is no longer confined to the U.S. and China but has expanded into a broader power struggle involving other global actors. The return of Donald Trump could mark a more aggressive phase in U.S.-China relations. During his first term, Trump targeted China through trade wars and technology embargoes. Under a second Trump administration, these policies could become even more radical, further straining U.S.-China relations and deepening polarization in global politics.

Such developments would create significant uncertainty, particularly in economic relations and security strategies. Medium-sized countries will face increasing pressure to take sides in this New Cold War. While the U.S.-China struggle for global hegemony presents both risks and opportunities for these nations, the risks are likely to grow under a potential Trump presidency.

Countries seeking to avoid these risks may become targets of economic and diplomatic sanctions, pushing the already eroding global order into a state of entropy and, eventually, decay. In this context, medium-sized states will likely pursue a balanced diplomatic strategy, combining short-term pragmatism with long-term planning. However, the deepening New Cold War may severely limit their ability to maneuver. Still, the current state of the global order and its inherent uncertainty provide these countries with significant room to navigate.

BRICS’ growing interest in expanding its membership in recent years must be understood within this framework of emerging opportunities. BRICS represents a rising political front rooted in economic cooperation and crystallizing around an anti-Western stance. Today, BRICS accounts for 30% of the world’s land area, 46% of the global population, and 20% of international trade. In terms of oil production and reserves, it controls nearly 40% of the global energy landscape.

Medium-sized countries are increasingly drawn to BRICS’ cooperative model, particularly given its growing economic weight, which now surpasses that of the G7. This shift has undoubtedly unsettled Western powers. As BRICS moves closer to becoming the geopolitical center of gravity for the East in the New Cold War, Trump has made it clear that he will not sit idly by. He has openly threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all countries aligned with BRICS, particularly targeting its initiatives related to a new currency and payment systems.

While technically challenging to implement, this statement highlights the level of tension and the U.S. perspective on BRICS. The New Cold War is indeed intensifying, with mechanisms like BRICS solidifying the divide between the West and the rest. As BRICS evolves from an economic bloc into a political force, the West is scrambling to counterbalance its influence. Ultimately, this dynamic accelerates the decay of the established global order.